- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the US and Iran “perhaps have the makings of a deal,” with both sides exchanging proposals on a 60-day framework that would include a mutual unwinding of Hormuz blockades over the first 30 days, an end to hostilities, and staged benefits for Iran contingent on verified compliance.
- The framework’s core US red lines: Iran must dispose of its highly enriched uranium, commit to never seeking a nuclear weapon, and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz — Bessent also announced new sanctions on the Iranian entity controlling Hormuz passage and threatened to sanction Oman if it facilitates Iranian toll collection on shipping.
- Iran signaled the final text is not yet ready — officials said Tehran would announce any deal via Pakistan, the framework’s primary mediator — and cited concerns that Trump could scuttle the agreement under Israeli influence; Iran also wants a Lebanon ceasefire and continued control over Hormuz management included.
- Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, believed to be in hiding and secluded from most top Iranian officials, must give final approval — his inaccessibility is one of the key complications delaying a signed agreement, as US officials cannot fully factor in his position.
What Happened?
In the most concrete public signal yet that a ceasefire-to-peace framework is within reach, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Thursday that the US and Iran are exchanging proposals and “perhaps have the makings of a deal.” According to US officials and Axios, the emerging agreement is a 60-day memorandum of understanding: over the first 30 days, both sides would gradually unwind their maritime blockades in the Strait of Hormuz; the full 60-day period covers an end to hostilities and lays out the benefits Iran will receive — beginning with partial Hormuz reopening, potentially escalating to frozen asset releases and sanctions relief contingent on verified nuclear compliance. Bessent stressed that Trump has not yet signed off and announced new sanctions on the Iranian entity controlling Hormuz access, while threatening to target Oman if it helps collect Iranian transit tolls. Iranian officials, via Tasnim, said the final text is not ready and that any deal announcement would come through Pakistan. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — believed to be in hiding — must ultimately approve any framework.
Why It Matters?
This is the closest the two sides have come to a formal framework since the April ceasefire. A Hormuz reopening — even partial, over 30 days — would be immediately material for energy markets: roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits the strait, Brent is near $91, and the prolonged closure has been a primary driver of the inflation spike that hammered consumer confidence and forced the Fed into a hawkish posture. A credible deal announcement, even without full implementation, would likely send oil prices sharply lower and relieve pressure on Warsh at the Fed. The complications are real: Iran wants a Lebanon ceasefire (which Netanyahu has rejected), continued Hormuz management control (which the US opposes), and front-loaded asset releases (which US hawks oppose). Khamenei’s inaccessibility adds decision-making uncertainty that neither side can fully model. The 60-day structure is also explicitly a first phase — the harder nuclear endgame remains ahead.
What’s Next?
Watch for a formal Pakistani announcement of the MOU — Tehran has said this is how a deal would be confirmed, which means the absence of a Pakistani statement is the clearest signal that talks have stalled. Trump’s sign-off is the other critical variable: his insistence that Abraham Accords participation is a precondition has already drawn a cold reception from Riyadh and Doha, and could collapse a deal that otherwise satisfies his stated military objectives. The 30-day Hormuz unwinding timeline, if agreed, would set a clear calendar for oil market normalization — energy traders will be watching for any term sheet leaks that confirm the pace of reopening. Netanyahu’s response to any Lebanon ceasefire requirement is the final wild card: Trump has said Netanyahu will do what Washington tells him, but Israeli military operations in Lebanon have continued throughout the Iran negotiations.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
