- Bitcoin fell 16% in the seven days through Sunday, its worst weekly loss since the FTX collapse triggered a 23% decline in November 2022, breaching $60,000 for the first time since October 2024 and leaving the token down more than 50% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000.
- Bitcoin slipped below its 200-week moving average — a widely watched support level — while investors pulled roughly $5.5 billion from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs over 13 consecutive days of net outflows.
- Strategy Inc. bought 1,550 Bitcoin for ~$101 million on Monday to steady nerves after its rare $2.5 million sale triggered confidence concerns, but analysts warn the market recovery is fragile and bullish signals in options markets are absent.
- A shift in rate expectations — markets moving from pricing Fed cuts to pricing potential hikes, driven by the Iran war and strong jobs data — is pulling capital out of speculative assets, while Bitcoin’s historical positive correlation with equities has broken down.
What Happened?
Bitcoin’s slide below $60,000 last Friday capped its worst weekly loss since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. The token dropped roughly 16% over seven days, breaching $60,000 for the first time since Trump’s election win in October 2024. The selloff was amplified when Strategy Inc. disclosed a small Bitcoin sale — its first since 2022 — cracking the narrative that it would never divest. Strategy moved to restore confidence Monday, buying 1,550 Bitcoin for ~$101 million, but analysts say trust may not be so easily rebuilt. Bitcoin has also broken below its 200-week moving average, a closely watched long-term support metric, and investors have pulled $5.5 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs over 13 straight days of net outflows.
Why It Matters?
The current correction is structurally different from past crypto winters — and that may be what makes it more dangerous. There is no FTX-style collapse, no obvious catalyst, just a slow erosion of confidence that analysts are calling a “silent bear market.” Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its peak, versus ~80% in prior bear cycles, meaning there is significant room for further downside if history rhymes. Rate expectations have shifted sharply: markets are now pricing the possibility of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts, driven by the Iran war and resilient jobs data, pulling capital away from speculative assets. Meanwhile, the positive correlation between Bitcoin and equities has broken down, eliminating one of the more supportive macro dynamics of the 2024 bull run.
What’s Next?
Analysts are watching Strategy’s ongoing SEC filings closely — its purchases or sales are now the single biggest market sentiment signal in crypto. Key technical levels to watch: any sustained move back above the 200-week moving average would be bullish; continued failure there deepens the bear case. Longer-dated options are not yet showing the bullish shift that has historically accompanied genuine market bottoms. If digital-asset treasury firms like Strategy face financing pressure and become forced sellers, that would represent a systemic risk to the entire sector — a scenario traders are increasingly discussing but have yet to price in fully.
Source: Bloomberg
