- President Trump told reporters Tuesday that U.S.-Iran peace talks are in the “final throes,” saying a deal framework could emerge “one or two days from now.”
- The comments came after Trump brokered a halt to the latest round of Israeli-Iranian exchanges of fire, which had briefly threatened to derail the broader negotiation process.
- Israel and Iran agreed to ease strikes against each other following the weekend flare-up — the first direct exchange of fire between the two sides since the April ceasefire.
- The rapid de-escalation suggests both sides retain enough interest in a deal to pull back from the brink, though key sticking points — including Strait of Hormuz access, Lebanon, and Iran’s nuclear enrichment — remain unresolved.
What Happened?
Speaking to reporters in New York on Tuesday, President Trump said the U.S. is in the “final throes” of a deal with Iran: “We could have at least an idea one or two days from now.” The remarks followed a weekend of direct Israeli-Iranian exchanges of fire — the first since the April ceasefire — that raised fears of a full-scale resumption of hostilities. Trump moved quickly to broker a halt, and Israel and Iran agreed to stand down from the latest round of strikes. The swift de-escalation stands in contrast to the broader trajectory of the conflict, which has seen repeated ceasefire fragilities and ongoing skirmishes at the Strait of Hormuz.
Why It Matters?
Trump’s optimism about a near-term deal framework could prove significant — or premature. Markets have been watching the Iran negotiations closely, with oil prices and risk assets both highly sensitive to signals of progress or breakdown. A deal that resolves the Hormuz crisis would release substantial oil supply currently disrupted by the blockade, potentially bringing energy prices down significantly and easing the inflationary pressures that have weighed on consumer sentiment. However, Trump has previously claimed deal proximity that didn’t materialize, and Iran’s conditions — including demands for sanctions relief and a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon — have not been publicly reconciled.
What’s Next?
The next 48 to 72 hours are the test window Trump himself has set. If a framework or letter of intent emerges, it would be a major geopolitical event. If the talks stall again, the latest round of Israeli-Iranian escalation will have served as a reminder of how fragile any ceasefire remains. The Strait of Hormuz situation, which controls roughly 20% of global oil supply, and Israel’s continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon remain the most visible flashpoints capable of blowing up any near-term deal.
Source: Bloomberg
