Key Takeaways
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- Exports fell 1.1% year-over-year in October, reversing September’s 8.3% increase.
- The result missed expectations for 2.8% growth, signaling weaker overseas demand and a high comparison base.
- Imports rose just 1.0%, down sharply from September’s 7.4% gain, underscoring slowing domestic momentum.
- China’s trade surplus narrowed slightly to $90.07 billion from $90.45 billion in September.
- The contraction followed a U.S.–China trade deal easing tariffs and suspending rare-earth export curbs.
Exports Reverse Course
China’s export growth unexpectedly turned negative in October, with outbound shipments declining 1.1% from a year earlier. The drop followed an 8.3% jump in September, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
Economists had forecast a modest gain, but weaker demand in key markets and an unusually strong base from last year weighed on results. Many Chinese exporters had front-loaded shipments ahead of the U.S. election, anticipating potential trade tensions under a second Trump administration.
Trade Deal and Global Demand
The data came shortly after Washington and Beijing reached a trade agreement last week. The deal included China lifting rare-earth export restrictions and increasing purchases of U.S. soybeans, while the U.S. reduced fentanyl-related tariffs.
Despite the diplomatic progress, global demand for Chinese goods appears to be softening, especially in electronics, consumer goods, and machinery, as overseas inventories remain elevated.
Imports Slow and Surplus Narrows
Imports grew 1.0% in October—slower than the 2.3% increase expected by economists and down from 7.4% in September. The pullback suggests sluggish domestic demand amid property-sector weakness and cautious consumer spending.
As a result, China’s trade surplus narrowed slightly to $90.07 billion, compared with $90.45 billion a month earlier.
Outlook
Analysts expect export headwinds to persist through year-end as global growth moderates and geopolitical uncertainty lingers. While the recent trade détente with the U.S. offers some relief, structural challenges—such as rising production costs and supply-chain diversification—continue to pressure China’s export sector.
