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Fed Chief Jerome Powell Signals Labor Market Cooling: Rate Cuts on Hold

by Team Lumida
July 10, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Inflation Eases: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts Soon?

Source: Reuters

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Key Takeaways:

  1. Powell highlights rising job market risks from high borrowing costs.
  2. Investors anticipate rate cuts by September amid cooling labor data.
  3. Fed prioritizes employment stability, with inflation decreasing to 2.6%.

What Happened?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed lawmakers, emphasizing the growing risks to the labor market from sustained high borrowing costs. He noted the recent government data showing three consecutive months of rising unemployment, signaling a cooling job market. Powell refrained from giving a timeline for potential interest-rate cuts, though investors expect them to begin in September.

The US central bank has held its benchmark rate at a two-decade high to curb inflation, which has decreased from 7.1% in June 2022 to 2.6% in May 2024. Powell’s remarks came during his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress, where he will continue to provide updates over two days.

Why It Matters?

The cooling labor market poses significant implications for your investment strategy. High borrowing costs are starting to impact job growth, pressuring the Fed to reconsider its stance on rate cuts. As inflation shows signs of deceleration, Powell stressed the importance of not cutting rates prematurely to avoid stalling progress.

Economist Derek Tang highlighted that even without further disinflation, more job market softening could prompt the Fed to act. For investors, this means closely monitoring labor data and Fed announcements becomes crucial. According to Anna Wong from Bloomberg Economics, the Fed is now balancing its dual mandate, equally weighing employment and price stability.

What’s Next?

Expect the Federal Open Market Committee to hold off on reducing rates at its next meeting on July 30-31. Investors should watch for the upcoming consumer price report, anticipated to show a 0.2% rise excluding food and energy, marking the smallest consecutive gains since August. This data could strengthen the Fed’s confidence in inflation trends.

Additionally, keep an eye on the labor market indicators, especially long-term unemployment figures, which have reached their highest levels since early 2022. Powell’s emphasis on employment stability suggests that the Fed might prioritize job market conditions over aggressive rate cuts, affecting market dynamics and investment opportunities.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Federal ReserveInflationInterest RatesJerome PowellUnemployment
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018