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Home News Macro

Fed Faces Tough Choices After Shockingly Weak Jobs Report

by Team Lumida
August 3, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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"Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bank Heist by Alvin Karpis and the Barker-Karpis Gang" by Chicago Crime Scenes is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

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Key Takeaways

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  1. July’s jobs report shows a slowdown in hiring, raising recession fears.
  2. Fed likely to cut interest rates to stabilize the economy.
  3. Economic slowdown could impact the 2024 presidential race.

What Happened?

The latest jobs report for July revealed a significant slowdown in hiring, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from 4.1% in June. This shift has caught the attention of Federal Reserve policymakers who had been primarily focused on controlling inflation.

Inflation has decreased from 7.1% two years ago to 2.5% in June, yet the labor market’s weakening is now the central concern. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a rate cut is probable next month, with analysts debating whether it will be a quarter-point or a half-point reduction.

Why It Matters?

The Fed’s focus has transitioned from solely combating inflation to also addressing potential economic slowdowns. Lowering interest rates could help stimulate the economy, but the timing and magnitude of these cuts are critical.

Investors fear the Fed may be acting too late, potentially exacerbating an economic downturn. A weakened labor market could also influence the 2024 presidential election, as economic health often sways voter sentiment. Marc Sumerlin, an economist, noted that a deteriorating economy would hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the presidency.

What’s Next?

Expect the Fed to implement rate cuts in the coming months, with a quarter-point reduction anticipated at each of the year’s remaining meetings. Economists like Michael Feroli suggest more aggressive cuts may be necessary to prevent a recession, advocating for a 1.25 percentage point reduction this year.

A bond-market rally has already lowered borrowing costs, which could spur housing demand and offset economic softness. However, a significant downturn in the stock market or a rapid increase in unemployment could trigger more severe economic consequences. Global central banks, including those in Europe and Canada, have already begun cutting rates, indicating a broader trend of easing monetary policies to combat slowing growth.

Source: Wall Street Journal
Tags: Federal ReserveInflation
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018