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Fed’s Pivot Pause: Rate Cuts May Slow in 2025 as Inflation Persists

by Team Lumida
December 13, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Will September’s Fed Rate Cuts Surprise Investors? Here’s What Deutsche Bank Predicts

"Jerome H. Powell, governor of the Federal Reserve Board, discusses how markets currently function" by BrookingsInst is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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Key Takeaways:

Powered by lumidawealth.com

  • December meeting expected to bring rates to 4.25-4.50%
  • Only three rate cuts predicted for 2025
  • Inflation concerns now outweigh unemployment worries
  • Trump’s policies could mean fewer rate cuts
  • Neutral rate expected to rise to 3%

What Happened?

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Fed will complete its third consecutive rate cut this month but will then significantly slow the pace of easing in 2025. The shift comes as inflation remains sticky and Trump’s proposed policies create new economic uncertainties.

Why It Matters?

This represents a major shift in economic outlook from just months ago:

  • Inflation persistence over unemployment concerns
  • Impact of potential Trump policies
  • Higher-for-longer rate environment
  • Balance sheet reduction timeline uncertainty

What’s Next?

Key dates and expectations:

  • December 17-18: 0.25% rate cut
  • January: Hold rates steady
  • March 2025: Next potential cut
  • June/September 2025: Two more cuts
  • Balance sheet reduction could continue into 2026
Tags: Fed rate cutFederal Reserve
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© 2024 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018