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Foreign Investors Flee: China’s Market Rebound Hopes Dashed

by Team Lumida
June 23, 2024
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Foreign Investors Flee: China’s Market Rebound Hopes Dashed
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Key Takeaways:

  1. Chinese stock earnings estimates slashed, MSCI China Index down 8%.
  2. Foreign investors sold $5 billion in Chinese stocks over nine days.
  3. Analysts remain skeptical despite upcoming political events and buybacks.

What Happened?

Investors in Chinese stocks are growing impatient as the long-awaited earnings recovery has failed to materialize. Earnings estimates for key Chinese equity gauges have been cut more than any other in Asia this year. The MSCI China Index dropped over 8% from its mid-May peak.

Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia equity strategist, noted, “We’ve now seen 11 straight quarters of earnings misses for MSCI China.” The Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index saw consensus earnings estimates fall by more than 6% this year, while other Asian benchmarks like India and Japan saw increases.

Why It Matters?

The downturn in Chinese stocks has significant implications for global investors. The sell-off, marked by foreign investors unloading over $5 billion in onshore stocks, signals declining confidence. Ritesh Samadhiya from Bank of America highlighted a structural bearishness among money managers, who are now 6% underweight on Chinese stocks.

The slump affects sectors from e-commerce to real estate, with major internet firms offering massive discounts to attract consumers. The recent market support policies from Beijing, including a property rescue package, have not sufficed to restore confidence.

What’s Next?

Looking ahead, the third plenum in July could be a pivotal moment. Optimists, like JPMorgan’s Wendy Liu, hope this political event will outline significant economic objectives and policy shifts that could buoy the market. However, Alexander Redman of CLSA cautioned that the expected earnings recovery over the next two years is overly optimistic, suggesting investors maintain benchmark weight on Chinese stocks.

The risk remains that if the third plenum’s outcomes are underwhelming, sentiment towards Chinese stocks could turn even more negative, lacking any new catalysts to drive recovery.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Chinese stocksEARNINGSMSCI China Index
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
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