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Global Dealmaking Slows Amid Market Volatility and Policy Uncertainty Under Trump Administration

by Team Lumida
March 24, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Fed Official Warns of Inflation Risks Under Trump Presidency

"Donald Trump" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

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Key Takeaways:

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  • Global M&A activity has dropped significantly, with the number of deals in Q1 2025 at its lowest in over a decade, down 30% year-over-year.
  • Despite fewer deals, the total value of takeovers has risen 14%, driven by a few high-profile megadeals, including Alphabet’s $32bn acquisition of Wiz.
  • Policy uncertainty under the Trump administration, including tariffs and stricter antitrust enforcement, is delaying deal execution and IPO activity.
  • Private equity firms have increased activity, with financial sponsor-backed M&A reaching $295bn, up from $160bn last year.

What Happened?

Global dealmaking has slowed sharply in early 2025, with the number of announced transactions falling to its lowest level in over a decade. According to Dealogic, only 6,600 deals have been announced this quarter, a 30% drop from last year and 44% below the 2021 peak. While the total value of takeovers has risen 14% to $812bn, this increase is largely due to a few major deals, such as Alphabet’s $32bn acquisition of Wiz and BlackRock’s $23bn purchase of ports from CK Hutchison. Private equity firms have also been more active, driven by pressure to return cash to investors.


Why It Matters?

The slowdown in dealmaking reflects broader market challenges, including stock market volatility, economic uncertainty, and shifting U.S. policies under the Trump administration. Tariffs, stricter antitrust enforcement, and regulatory uncertainty are making it harder for companies to plan acquisitions or IPOs. For investors, this environment creates both risks and opportunities. While megadeals signal confidence in certain sectors like cybersecurity and infrastructure, the overall hesitancy in deal execution highlights the fragility of the current market. Private equity’s increased activity suggests a focus on unlocking value in a challenging environment, but IPO markets remain subdued, limiting exit opportunities.


What’s Next?

The outlook for dealmaking depends on greater clarity in U.S. trade and antitrust policies, as well as stabilization in market conditions. Bankers and advisers expect a potential rebound later in the year if uncertainty eases, but caution remains high. Investors should watch for shifts in Trump administration policies, particularly around tariffs and competition regulation, which could either revive or further dampen M&A activity. Additionally, private equity firms are likely to remain active, while IPO markets may see a gradual recovery as companies like CoreWeave and Klarna test investor appetite.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018