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March Retail Sales Show Resilience, But Tariff Impact Looms Over Consumer Spending

by Team Lumida
April 16, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 5 mins read
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Photo by Veronika Koroleva on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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  • March retail sales are expected to rise 1.3% from February, driven by higher auto sales and tariff-related preemptive spending.
  • Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales are projected to grow 0.5%, with gains in clothing and home improvement but weaker sales in furniture and general merchandise.
  • Factors like improved weather, higher tax refunds (up 3.5% year-over-year), and consumer efforts to get ahead of potential price hikes contributed to the rebound.
  • Tariff uncertainty remains a significant risk, with new 10% baseline tariffs and 145% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports already in effect, potentially cooling demand in the coming months.

What Happened?

Retail sales in March are expected to show a strong rebound after a sluggish start to the year, with economists forecasting a 1.3% month-over-month increase. The surge is largely attributed to higher auto sales, as consumers took advantage of March deals to get ahead of potential price hikes caused by tariff uncertainty.

Spending on clothing and home improvement also saw gains, according to Bank of America credit card data, while categories like furniture and general merchandise remained tepid. Improved weather and higher tax refunds further supported consumer spending during the month.

Despite the positive outlook for March, the broader retail environment remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff policies. A 10% baseline tariff on imports and a 145% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods went into effect earlier this month, with additional tariffs likely to follow.


Why It Matters?

Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, making retail sales a critical indicator of economic health. While March’s rebound offers reassurance that consumers are still spending, the long-term impact of tariffs on demand and pricing remains a key concern.

Tariff-related uncertainty has already weighed on consumer sentiment, which has declined for four consecutive months. Although sentiment hasn’t strongly correlated with spending in recent years, lackluster retail sales in January and February raised fears that higher prices and economic unpredictability could dampen demand for the rest of 2025.

Economists note that while real wage growth and lower energy costs provide a cushion for consumers, the ability to absorb higher prices from tariffs is limited. The coming months will test the resilience of U.S. consumers as companies adjust pricing to offset rising import costs.


What’s Next?

The real test of consumer spending will come as the full impact of tariffs is felt in the economy. Companies are likely to raise prices to offset higher import costs, which could strain household budgets and cool demand in key retail categories.

Economists and analysts will closely monitor April and May retail sales data to assess whether the March rebound was a temporary boost or a sign of sustained consumer resilience. Additionally, the Trump administration’s ongoing tariff negotiations and potential new levies will remain a critical factor shaping the retail outlook.

For now, March’s retail sales provide a glimmer of hope, but the long-term effects of tariffs on consumer spending and economic growth remain uncertain.

Source
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018