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Mature U.S. Shale Industry Poses Challenge to Trump’s Oil Production Ambitions

by Team Lumida
December 28, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Brazil’s Oil Output Rebounds: Impact on Global Markets
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Key Takeaways:

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• Major oil companies now dominate previously fragmented shale production
• Private operators reduced from 50% to 25% of Permian rig operations since 2022
• U.S. crude production growth projected at just 3.6% through 2030
• Industry consolidation has brought more disciplined capital allocation

What Happened?

The U.S. shale industry has undergone a fundamental transformation since Trump’s first term. The wildcatters who sparked the initial shale boom have largely been replaced by major oil corporations like Exxon, Diamondback, and Occidental. This consolidation has brought more disciplined production approaches, with just three companies now controlling a third of Permian Basin output – a share previously split among 30 companies a decade ago. The industry reached record production of over 13 million barrels per day under Biden, but through more measured, efficiency-focused approaches.

Why It Matters?

This transformation represents a structural shift in U.S. oil production dynamics. The industry’s maturation means it’s unlikely to respond to political pressure or price signals with the same aggressive growth seen in previous years. Major corporations, focused on shareholder returns and operational efficiency, have replaced the nimble, growth-oriented wildcatters. Additionally, geological constraints in aging fields and infrastructure limitations are creating natural barriers to rapid expansion, particularly outside the Permian Basin.

What’s Next?

JPMorgan projects U.S. crude production will grow modestly to 13.5 million barrels per day by 2030, a significant slowdown from previous growth rates. Industry focus will shift toward optimization and efficiency rather than expansion, with continued consolidation likely. Most basins outside the Permian face declining production, suggesting the era of explosive U.S. shale growth is ending. This new reality could have significant implications for global oil markets and U.S. energy policy, particularly if political pressure to increase production intensifies.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018