Oaktree’s Panossian Warns of Exuberance in AI-Driven Data Center Boom

Key Takeaways:

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1. Risk of Overinvestment: Oaktree Capital Co-CEO Armen Panossian cautioned that the surge in AI-related investments, particularly in data centers, mirrors the fiber optic boom of the late 1990s, where overcapacity was built without sufficient demand.
2. AI’s Market Impact: The global AI boom, fueled by technologies like ChatGPT, has driven massive investments from private equity, real estate firms, and sovereign wealth funds into data centers and infrastructure.
3. Emerging Risks: Innovations like China’s DeepSeek chatbot, which requires less computing power, could reduce the long-term demand for data centers, raising concerns about sustainability.
4. Opportunities in Credit: Despite risks, Panossian sees opportunities for credit managers to fund AI projects responsibly, given the significant spending required across the AI ecosystem in both hardware and software.
5. Private Market Challenges: Fundraising in private markets has slowed as private equity struggles to deploy and return capital, leading to tighter spreads in private credit and a more cautious investment approach.

What Happened?

Armen Panossian, Co-CEO of Oaktree Capital Management, highlighted the risks of overinvestment in AI-related infrastructure, particularly data centers, during an interview with Bloomberg TV. He compared the current AI-driven building spree to the fiber optic boom of the late 1990s, where excessive capital led to overcapacity without sufficient user demand.

The AI boom, sparked by the success of tools like ChatGPT, has attracted significant investments from private equity, real estate firms, and sovereign wealth funds. However, the emergence of China’s DeepSeek chatbot, which requires less computing power, has raised questions about the long-term demand for data centers.

Panossian emphasized the need for caution, stating that Oaktree is avoiding the “exuberance” in the sector while identifying opportunities for credit managers to provide funding for AI projects responsibly.

Why It Matters?

The rapid growth of AI-related investments highlights both the opportunities and risks in the sector. While the demand for data centers and infrastructure is driving significant capital flows, the risk of overbuilding could lead to inefficiencies and financial losses, as seen during the dot-com era.

For credit managers like Oaktree, the challenge lies in balancing the intoxicating potential of AI investments with the need for disciplined capital allocation. The slowdown in private market fundraising and tighter spreads in private credit further underscore the importance of a cautious approach.

The emergence of more efficient AI technologies, like DeepSeek, could disrupt the current trajectory of data center investments, making it critical for investors to assess long-term demand and sustainability.

What’s Next?

Oaktree plans to proceed cautiously in the AI sector, focusing on responsible credit opportunities rather than chasing speculative investments. Panossian also identified Germany as a promising market in Europe due to its debt-to-GDP levels, though the firm will approach investments there with caution.

Investors will closely monitor the evolution of AI technologies and their impact on infrastructure demand, as well as the broader implications for private equity and credit markets. The potential for overcapacity in data centers could lead to a reevaluation of investment strategies in the sector.