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Home News Markets

Oil Markets Recalibrate Amid Trump’s Russian Sanctions Uncertainty

by Team Lumida
January 17, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Geopolitical Forces Shape Oil Market Dynamics
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Key Takeaways:

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• WTI crude falls 1.7% to sub-$79 after reaching 5-month high
• Asian buyers seeking 750,000 bpd alternative supply to Russian crude
• Mixed signals from Trump administration on Russian sanctions
• Middle East tensions easing with Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement

What Happened?
Oil prices retreated from five-month highs as markets digest conflicting signals about the incoming Trump administration’s approach to Russian sanctions. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent supports increased sanctions, while other advisers reportedly favor policies benefiting Russian producers. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco reports increased inquiries from Asian buyers seeking alternative supply sources.

Why It Matters?
The market’s reaction reflects broader uncertainty about global oil supply chains and trade policies. Asian buyers’ preemptive moves to secure non-Russian supply indicates potential major shifts in global oil trade flows. Despite the pullback, WTI has gained 10% year-to-date, supported by cold weather demand and falling US inventories, which are at their lowest since April 2022.

What’s Next?
Key factors to watch include:

  • Trump administration’s final sanctions policy
  • Implementation of Israel-Hamas ceasefire
  • Asian buyers’ success in securing alternative supplies
  • US inventory levels and production response
  • Potential Canadian oil tariffs and domestic production policies
    Market volatility likely to continue through Trump’s inauguration as traders position for policy shifts. The temporary nature of the Middle East ceasefire suggests geopolitical risk premium may persist despite immediate easing.

Source
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

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‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
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