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Oracle Shares Rise Despite Q3 Miss, Driven by Strong Cloud Demand and Record Contract Backlog

by Team Lumida
March 11, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Oracle’s Q4 earnings missed expectations but stock jumped ~11% after new cloud deals

Source: Mint

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Key Takeaways:

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  • Oracle reported Q3 earnings of $1.47 per share on $14.13 billion in revenue, missing Wall Street estimates of $1.49 per share and $14.38 billion in revenue.
  • Cloud services revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $11 billion but fell short of expectations.
  • Remaining performance obligations (RPOs) surged 62% to $130 billion, significantly beating estimates and signaling strong future revenue.
  • Oracle announced a 25% dividend increase and highlighted major cloud agreements with OpenAI, Meta, and Nvidia, projecting a 15% revenue increase in the next fiscal year.

What Happened?

Oracle reported fiscal Q3 results that fell slightly below Wall Street expectations, with adjusted earnings of $1.47 per share on $14.13 billion in revenue. Cloud services and license support revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $11 billion but missed estimates of $11.21 billion. Despite the miss, shares rose 3.1% in after-hours trading, driven by optimism around Oracle’s future growth. The company announced a 25% dividend increase and highlighted new cloud agreements with major tech players like OpenAI, Meta, and Nvidia. Remaining performance obligations (RPOs) reached $130 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, far exceeding Wall Street’s $103.3 billion estimate.


Why It Matters?

Oracle’s results underscore the growing demand for cloud services, even as the company faces near-term revenue challenges. The 62% surge in RPOs reflects strong customer commitments and positions Oracle for sustained growth in the coming years. The company’s partnerships with leading tech firms and its involvement in the $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure project further solidify its role in the rapidly expanding AI and cloud markets. However, broader economic uncertainty and potential trade policy risks could weigh on customer budgets, posing challenges for Oracle and the broader tech sector.


What’s Next?

Oracle plans to double its data center capacity in 2025 to meet record customer demand, with capital expenditures expected to exceed $16 billion. The company is also preparing to sign its first Stargate contract, which could further boost its RPOs. Investors should monitor Oracle’s ability to execute on its cloud expansion plans and capitalize on its partnerships with OpenAI, Meta, and Nvidia. Additionally, the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and potential trade policy changes on customer spending will be key factors to watch. Oracle’s next earnings report and updates on its AI initiatives will provide further clarity on its growth trajectory.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

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