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Rising Rates: What Trump’s Presidency Could Mean for Your Investments

by Team Lumida
October 11, 2024
in Macro, Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Rising Rates: What Trump’s Presidency Could Mean for Your Investments
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Key Takeaways:

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Federal Reserve cut short-term rates, but 10-year Treasury yields hit 4%.

Federal debt’s unsustainable path might worsen under Trump’s presidency.

Investors expect higher interest rates due to potential fiscal policies.

What Happened?

The Federal Reserve recently reduced its short-term rate target by half a point, signaling potential further cuts. Despite this, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4%, the highest in two months.

Why this increase? Investors foresee higher long-term rates over the next decade. Inflation and growth projections aren’t as low as before the pandemic, and the federal debt is on a precarious path.

If Donald Trump wins the presidency and Republicans control Congress, this situation could become more perilous. Economists now estimate the “neutral rate” at around 3.5%, up from 2.5% last December.

Why It Matters?

Higher long-term interest rates could significantly impact your investment portfolio. Federal debt, now at 98% of GDP, could rise further due to proposed spending and tax cuts.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Trump’s plans could add $7.5 trillion to the debt by 2035, compared to $3.5 trillion for Kamala Harris’s proposals. This increased debt level may pressure bond yields upward, affecting borrowing costs and investment returns.

Maya MacGuineas of the CRFB warns, “Trump’s agenda could be significantly worse than Harris’s for the debt.”

What’s Next?

Investors should prepare for the possibility of rising interest rates and its implications. If Trump implements his fiscal policies, long-term rates might rise by 0.25 to 2 percentage points. Factors like inflation, demand for bonds, and global economic conditions will also play roles.

As U.S. debt ventures into uncharted territory, fiscal responsibility becomes crucial. Bob Corker, former Republican senator, suggests hoping for a divided Congress to manage fiscal challenges.

Keep an eye on economic indicators and fiscal policies, as they will shape the financial landscape in the coming years.

Source: The Wall Street Journal
Tags: Donald TrumpInterest Rates
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018