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Home News Macro

Russian Oil Exports Hit 16-Month Low as US Sanctions Reshape Global Trade

by Team Lumida
January 21, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Geopolitical Forces Shape Oil Market Dynamics
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Key Takeaways:

Powered by lumidawealth.com
• Seaborne crude exports fall to 2.75 million barrels/day, down 9%
• 75% of Pacific ESPO cargoes affected by sanctions on vessels
• India grants grace period until March 12 for sanctioned tankers
• Export value declines to $1.38 billion weekly, despite price increases

What Happened?

Russian seaborne crude exports experienced their largest decline since November following new US sanctions, with weekly shipments dropping to 2.75 million barrels per day. The four-week average remained below 3 million barrels daily, marking a 10% decrease from 2024 averages. Pacific routes face particular disruption, with approximately three-quarters of ESPO cargoes typically carried on newly sanctioned vessels.

Why It Matters?

This disruption signals a potential restructuring of global oil trade patterns. The impact is particularly significant for Russia’s Pacific operations, affecting both traditional shipping routes and buyer relationships. While export values have declined, rising crude prices have partially offset volume reductions. The situation highlights the effectiveness of sanctions in disrupting established trade patterns, though market participants anticipate potential workarounds and possible policy shifts under the new Trump administration.

What’s Next?

Key developments to monitor include:

  • Trump administration’s approach to sanctions enforcement
  • Russia’s ability to secure alternative shipping arrangements
  • Impact on global oil prices and trade flows
  • India’s post-March 12 policy on sanctioned vessels
  • China’s continued acceptance of sanctioned cargoes

Market participants should watch for emerging alternative shipping arrangements and potential policy shifts that could affect global oil trade patterns and prices. The period through March 12 will be particularly crucial as current grace periods expire and new trade patterns emerge.

Source
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018