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Trump’s Dollar Dilemma: Can He Really Weaken the Greenback?

by Team Lumida
October 11, 2024
in Macro, Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Trump’s Dollar Dilemma: Can He Really Weaken the Greenback?
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Key Takeaways:

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Trump’s plan to weaken the dollar may clash with his trade policies.

Success in weakening the dollar requires coordination with global central banks.

China poses a significant challenge due to its currency controls.

What Happened?

Donald Trump, alongside running mate JD Vance, aims to weaken the U.S. dollar. JPMorgan’s chief economist, Michael Feroli, highlights the complexities they face.

Despite Trump’s desire for a cheaper dollar, his trade policies suggest an appreciation of the currency due to higher import duties. JPMorgan notes that past sterilized interventions, which don’t alter the monetary base, have shown mixed results.

Public announcements and backing from global central banks tend to make such interventions more effective. Without cooperation, especially from nations with controlled currencies like China’s yuan, Trump’s efforts may falter.

Why It Matters?

A weaker dollar could impact global trade, inflation, and U.S. exports. If Trump attempts to weaken the dollar, it might conflict with his trade policy goals, potentially leading to economic instability.

Feroli points out that while U.S. presidents can use tools like the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, success hinges on coordination with other monetary authorities.

Without international cooperation, especially from key players like the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan, achieving a weaker dollar becomes significantly challenging.

What’s Next?

Investors should watch for any official announcements from Trump’s camp about dollar intervention strategies. The Federal Reserve’s stance under Jerome Powell will be crucial.

If the Fed doesn’t support such moves, the effectiveness of any intervention diminishes. Additionally, China’s strict capital controls mean any intervention would likely occur in the offshore CNH market, adding another layer of complexity.

Investors should monitor global central banks’ reactions and potential shifts in U.S. trade policies, as these will influence the dollar’s trajectory and broader market implications.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Donald TrumpJPMorgan
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018