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Trump’s U-Turn on Nvidia Chip Sales Fuels Talk of US-China ‘Grand Bargain’ on Tech and Trade

by Team Lumida
July 18, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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How Nvidia’s AI Chips are Secretly Making Their Way to China

Source: Ars Technicia

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Key Takeaways:

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  1. Export Controls Eased: The Trump administration has reversed course, allowing Nvidia and AMD to resume sales of less advanced AI chips (like Nvidia’s H20) to China, signaling a shift from the previous “maximum restriction” approach.
  2. Strategic Rationale: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the goal is to keep Chinese developers “addicted” to U.S. technology, maintaining U.S. leverage while still restricting China’s access to the most advanced chips.
  3. Potential Grand Bargain: Analysts see this as a possible opening for a broader US-China tech and trade deal, with bargaining chips including semiconductors, rare earths, battery tech, and mutual market access.
  4. Diplomatic Thaw: The move follows recent diplomatic engagement and a truce that saw the U.S. lower tariffs and ease some export controls in exchange for Chinese rare-earth magnets, with more talks and possible deals expected ahead of a Trump-Xi summit.
  5. Transactional Approach: Trump’s strategy is less ideologically rigid than Biden’s, focusing on transactional deals to secure U.S. economic interests, including large Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and action on fentanyl precursors.

What Happened?

In a major policy reversal, the Trump administration has told Nvidia and AMD they can resume sales of certain AI chips to China, after previously imposing strict export controls to maintain a U.S. tech lead. The administration’s new approach aims to keep China reliant on U.S. technology while still protecting the most sensitive advances.

This shift comes as the U.S. and China are engaged in renewed trade and tech talks, with both sides signaling willingness to negotiate on a range of issues—from tariffs and rare earths to investment restrictions and the future of TikTok’s U.S. operations.


Why It Matters?

The decision marks a significant softening in U.S. tech policy toward China and could pave the way for a broader “grand bargain” on trade and technology. By balancing export controls with continued market access, the U.S. hopes to maintain leverage over China’s tech sector while reducing the risk of full economic decoupling.

The move also reflects Trump’s pragmatic, deal-oriented approach, which could lead to further concessions and agreements as both sides prepare for a possible leaders’ summit later this year.


What’s Next?

Expect further negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials, with the potential for incremental deals on tariffs, tech exports, and market access. The outcome of these talks will shape the future of U.S.-China economic relations and the global tech supply chain, especially as both sides seek to avoid escalation and find common ground.

Investors and industry players will be watching for signs of additional policy shifts, new export licenses, and the broader impact on U.S. chipmakers and global tech competition.

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Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018