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US June Jobs Report Expected to Show Slower Hiring and Rising Unemployment Amid Policy Strains

by Team Lumida
July 3, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 5 mins read
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Key Takeaways:

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  1. Slower Job Growth: Economists forecast 106,000 new jobs in June, the slowest pace in four months, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021.
  2. Policy Impact: Trump administration’s trade and immigration policies are beginning to weigh on the labor market, with tariffs and policy uncertainty dampening hiring trends.
  3. Labor Force Dynamics: A drop in labor force participation is keeping unemployment figures artificially low, with economists warning the true jobless rate could be closer to 4.7%.
  4. Sectoral Weakness: Key sectors like leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and manufacturing are expected to show slower hiring, reflecting weaker consumer spending and broader economic headwinds.
  5. Fed Implications: A weaker jobs report could delay Federal Reserve interest rate cuts until September, though faster deterioration may prompt action at the July 29-30 meeting.

What Happened?

The upcoming June jobs report is expected to reveal a slowing labor market, with payroll growth decelerating to 106,000 jobs and unemployment edging up to 4.3%. Economists attribute the slowdown to the Trump administration’s tariffs and immigration restrictions, which have created uncertainty for businesses and dampened hiring.

Indicators such as rising unemployment insurance claims and a surge in layoff notices suggest further strain on the labor market. Additionally, a drop in labor force participation—partly due to immigration policies—has masked the true extent of joblessness.

Sectors like leisure and hospitality, which saw strong hiring in May, are expected to weaken in June amid slowing consumer spending. Economists also warn of potential downward revisions to April and May payroll figures, particularly for small businesses.


Why It Matters?

The June jobs report will provide critical insights into the health of the U.S. economy as it faces challenges from trade policies, tariffs, and policy uncertainty. Slower job growth and rising unemployment could signal broader economic weakness, raising concerns about the sustainability of the recovery.

For the Federal Reserve, the report will influence decisions on interest rate cuts, with weaker data potentially accelerating monetary easing. However, persistent labor market challenges could complicate the Fed’s ability to balance growth and inflation risks.

The report also highlights the impact of immigration policies on labor force dynamics, with reduced participation affecting both job creation and unemployment metrics.


What’s Next?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June jobs report on Thursday, with analysts closely watching for signs of further labor market deterioration. Key focus areas include sectoral hiring trends, labor force participation, and potential downward revisions to previous months’ data.

The report’s findings will shape expectations for the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting and provide a clearer picture of how Trump’s policies are impacting the U.S. economy.

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Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018