- Venezuela is in discussions with US officials about potentially leaving OPEC — the cartel it co-founded in 1960 — according to people familiar with the talks; no final decision has been made, but the conversations reflect a dramatic reorientation of Venezuelan energy policy since Trump ousted President Maduro on January 3 and installed acting President Delcy Rodríguez.
- The US is simultaneously in talks for a large equity stake in Venezuelan oil fields — with some discussions reportedly involving a lease of up to 100 years — which would structurally align Venezuelan production with US strategic interests rather than OPEC quota discipline, making an OPEC exit a logical corollary of any such deal.
- Venezuela currently produces approximately 1.16 million barrels per day — less than half its output from a decade ago but rising — and its departure would follow UAE’s exit from OPEC in April 2026 and growing frustration from Iraq; US officials have explicitly discussed building a US-Venezuela energy alliance as a tool to diminish OPEC’s pricing power over global oil markets.
- Chevron secured an asset swap in April that expanded its Venezuelan operations, and the broader US-Venezuela rapprochement since Maduro’s removal is moving faster than most observers anticipated — combining regime change, oil field access, potential OPEC defection, and direct US equity stakes into what amounts to a comprehensive energy annexation strategy.
What Happened?
Venezuela is actively discussing with US officials whether to exit OPEC, the oil cartel it co-founded in Baghdad in September 1960. The talks are part of a broader US-Venezuela energy negotiation that includes US equity stakes — potentially via a 100-year lease structure — in Venezuelan oil fields. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, installed after Trump ousted Maduro in January, has moved aggressively to realign Venezuelan energy policy toward the US. Chevron’s April asset swap was the first major commercial step; OPEC exit discussions represent the geopolitical capstone. The UAE left OPEC in April 2026; Iraq has also expressed frustration with quota discipline. Venezuela has not made a final decision.
Why It Matters?
If Venezuela exits OPEC and enters a long-term production partnership with the US, the cartel loses a founding member, roughly 1.16 million barrels per day of current quota, and — more importantly — the credibility of disciplined production cuts as a price management tool. Combined with the potential Iranian diplomatic opening also signaled this week, the US appears to be executing a dual-track strategy: bring Venezuelan barrels fully under US commercial control via equity stakes, and reopen Iranian barrels via diplomacy, with both moves simultaneously expanding global supply and reducing OPEC’s leverage. For investors, this is structurally bearish for oil prices over a 12-24 month horizon if both tracks succeed — but the execution risk on Iran is high and Venezuela’s production ramp will take time.
What’s Next?
The concrete next milestones are: whether any formal US equity stake agreement is announced for Venezuelan fields, whether Venezuela formally notifies OPEC of withdrawal, and whether the Iranian diplomatic track produces any back-channel meetings in September. Watch Chevron’s Venezuela operations commentary in their next earnings call for production ramp signals, and track OPEC’s response — Saudi Arabia in particular has limited tools to discipline members that exit the cartel entirely.
Source: Bloomberg
