Inflation Is Slowing. The Affordability Crisis Isn’t.

Key Takeaways

Prices for core necessities remain sharply higher than 2020 levels, even as inflation slows.
Housing affordability has deteriorated due to both higher home prices and elevated mortgage rates.
Utilities, insurance, auto repairs and childcare continue to outpace wage growth.
Health insurance premiums and ACA plan costs are rising again.
Wage growth has matched or slightly exceeded cumulative inflation overall—but many households still feel financially stuck.

What’s Happened Since the Inflation Shock?
The surge in inflation that defined the early 2020s has cooled, but prices haven’t reset. Consumers are paying materially more for essentials than they did before the pandemic—and that price level shift is permanent.

Groceries are roughly 30% higher than early 2020. Restaurant prices are up about 35%. Daycare has climbed nearly 40% since 2019. Home prices surged during the pandemic and mortgage payments have nearly doubled due to higher rates.

Inflation may have slowed, but the cost base has structurally shifted upward.

Why Housing Is the Core Pain Point
Housing is the single biggest driver of perceived affordability stress.

Mortgage payments have nearly doubled since 2020.
Rents are up more than 35% nationwide.
Down payments now consume roughly 70% of annual household income for a young couple, up sharply from pre-pandemic levels.

Even homeowners who locked in low rates are feeling pressure from rising insurance, property taxes and utility costs.

Housing has moved from aspirational to restrictive for many middle-class households.

Everyday Expenses Are Quietly Compounding
Beyond housing and groceries, other costs have climbed steadily:

Electricity and natural gas bills have surged.
Auto insurance and repair costs are up sharply.
Student loan and auto delinquencies are rising.
Childcare costs continue climbing.

Even when gasoline prices soften, the cumulative burden across categories keeps total household expenses elevated.

Affordability stress isn’t about one category. It’s about everything rising together.

Healthcare Pressures Are Re-Emerging
Health insurance premiums for families have increased more than 20% in five years. Millions of ACA enrollees face higher premiums after pandemic-era subsidies expired.

Healthcare remains one of the largest and least flexible line items in household budgets—particularly for older Americans and middle-income families.

Wages: Technically Up, Emotionally Flat
Average weekly wages are up roughly 31% since 2020—slightly ahead of cumulative inflation. On paper, that suggests households aren’t losing ground.

But two realities distort the experience:

Wage gains haven’t always matched essentials inflation.
People anchor to prior price levels, not growth rates.

Spending $126 for what used to cost $100 feels like loss—even if income technically rose alongside it.

Research also shows many people view raises as performance rewards, not inflation adjustments. That psychological framing reinforces the feeling of stagnation.

The Political and Economic Crossroads
Affordability has become the defining economic issue. Even with cooling inflation, voters and consumers remain focused on cost levels—not inflation rates.

The Federal Reserve faces a balancing act:

Inflation remains sticky in some categories.
Rate cuts could ease borrowing costs.
But premature easing risks reigniting price pressures.

Meanwhile, tariffs, housing supply constraints and structural service inflation keep cost risks elevated.

The Bottom Line
The inflation shock may be fading—but the affordability reset is permanent.

Prices don’t rewind. They plateau.

For many households, that means the economy feels stable—but tighter. Growth exists, wages are rising, inflation is slower—yet financial breathing room hasn’t meaningfully expanded.

That’s the difference between inflation cooling and affordability improving.

And for millions of Americans, those are not the same thing.

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