Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin rose as much as 2.6% to $68,335 on Tuesday after the WSJ reported Trump may end the Iran war without reopening Hormuz — a sign that markets interpreted the news as reducing geopolitical tail risk — while S&P 500 futures reversed a decline to trade up roughly 1%.
- Bitcoin has been “incredibly sticky” around $68,000 throughout March, even as gold has fallen more than 13% this month as equity liquidations and tighter monetary policy expectations weighed on the precious metal.
- Bitcoin is up roughly 3% in March; gold is down 13% — a stark divergence that reflects crypto’s growing status as a macro hedge against geopolitical uncertainty rather than an inflation-sensitive risk asset.
- Over $1.5 billion in put contracts are concentrated at the $60,000 strike on crypto options platform Deribit, suggesting significant downside hedging remains in place — but a portfolio manager at Apollo Crypto says put buying could subside meaningfully in the coming weeks if ceasefire signals continue.
What Happened?
Cryptocurrencies rallied Tuesday alongside stocks and bonds across Asian markets after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering ending the U.S. military campaign in Iran without forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin rose as much as 2.6% to $68,335 before paring gains to around 1.3%, while Ether, Solana, and XRP posted gains of up to 3.3%, 2.2%, and 1.5% respectively. The moves came as S&P 500 futures reversed a decline to trade roughly 1% higher and global government bonds continued their rally on growth-slowdown expectations. The most striking market story of March, however, has been Bitcoin’s resilience relative to gold: while gold has shed more than 13% of its value as equity-driven margin calls forced investor liquidations, Bitcoin has held steady and is actually up roughly 3% month-to-date — a divergence that has not gone unnoticed among institutional investors.
Why It Matters?
Bitcoin’s outperformance of gold during an active geopolitical crisis is a meaningful data point for the ongoing debate about crypto’s role in institutional portfolios. The traditional safe-haven trade — buy gold when global risks rise — has broken down this month, partly because gold was caught in forced selling as equity investors liquidated positions to cover losses elsewhere. Bitcoin, by contrast, appears to have attracted buyers who see it as a hedge against long-duration geopolitical uncertainty rather than a near-term inflation play. The “stickiness” around $68,000 that Apollo Crypto’s Pratik Kala describes suggests a buyer base that is not panicking in response to war headlines — and may be adding at current levels. For institutional allocators who have been debating how to size crypto in multi-asset portfolios, this performance episode provides meaningful evidence that Bitcoin’s correlation to equities during a macro shock may be lower than many portfolio models assume.
What’s Next?
The near-term direction for Bitcoin depends heavily on whether the Iran war moves toward resolution. A credible ceasefire signal would likely trigger a risk-on rally across crypto — but Bitcoin’s recent resilience suggests it may not need geopolitical relief to hold current levels. The $1.5 billion in put options at the $60,000 strike on Deribit represents significant insurance buying that has yet to be unwound; if those contracts begin to expire unexercised or are closed out, the reduction in hedging demand could push prices higher. Longer term, the Fannie Mae decision to accept crypto-backed mortgages announced this week is a structural positive for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption narrative. Investors should watch the $65,000 support level as the first meaningful test of the bullish thesis, and monitor whether institutional put buying at Deribit actually begins to subside in April as Apollo Crypto’s analysts suggest.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/bitcoin-rises-risk-assets-trump-iran-war-report
