- Bitcoin fell as much as 2.8% to below $66,300 in Asian trading Thursday after Trump signaled the U.S. would launch fresh strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, damping hopes of an imminent end to the conflict
- Smaller tokens took a harder hit: Ether fell as much as 4.7% and Solana dropped as much as 5.1%; MSCI’s Asia Pacific share index fell 1.7%, reversing a rebound
- Brent crude surged more than 5% to above $106 a barrel on Trump’s comments — oil is now up roughly 60% since the war began — while the dollar pushed higher and Treasury yields climbed
- Bitcoin has shown reduced sensitivity to geopolitical swings in recent weeks, but remains roughly 45% below its all-time high above $126,000, with apparent demand still negative by about 63,000 BTC as of late March
What Happened?
Bitcoin tumbled in Asia on Thursday after President Trump delivered a prime-time address signaling the U.S. would launch fresh strikes on Iran within the next two to three weeks — undercutting the more hopeful market narrative that had built after Trump earlier this week said he was open to ending the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin dropped as much as 2.8% to below $66,300 in Singapore midday trading. Smaller tokens fared worse: Ether fell as much as 4.7% and Solana dropped as much as 5.1%. MSCI’s Asia Pacific share index fell 1.7%, reversing a short-lived rebound, while Brent crude surged more than 5% to above $106 a barrel and Treasury yields climbed alongside the dollar.
Why It Matters?
Bitcoin had been one of the more resilient assets through the Iran war, ending March up 2% — its first monthly gain since September — while gold fell more than 11% over the same period as inflation concerns dominated. That relative resilience raised hopes that crypto was decoupling from the geopolitical noise. Thursday’s selloff complicates that narrative: Bitcoin is still behaving largely as a risk asset, directionally following equities even if with reduced sensitivity. The underlying demand picture remains challenging — apparent demand, which measures how much demand exceeds new Bitcoin being mined, was negative by about 63,000 BTC as of late March according to CryptoQuant. With the token still roughly 45% below its all-time high above $126,000, there is no structural floor in place that would prevent a deeper drawdown if the Iran war escalates further and risk appetite deteriorates.
What’s Next?
The immediate catalyst for Bitcoin’s direction is the same as for every other risk asset: the trajectory of the Iran conflict. Trump’s threat to strike Iranian power infrastructure within two to three weeks, combined with his exhortation to allies to “grab and cherish” the Strait of Hormuz passage, suggests the conflict is entering a more intense phase rather than winding down. For Bitcoin specifically, the key level to watch on the downside is $60,000, where more than $1.5 billion in put options are clustered on Deribit — representing significant hedging by institutional traders. On the upside, analysts continue to cite $70,000 to $72,000 as the threshold needed to rebuild genuine conviction. A negotiated end to the Iran war — should it materialize — would likely be the single most powerful catalyst for a crypto relief rally.
Source: Bloomberg
