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Home News Macro

California Wildfires: Economic Impact Could Rival Major Hurricanes

by Team Lumida
January 18, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Photo by Tim Mossholder on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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• Estimated economic damage between $2-3 billion, with potential for significant escalation
• Insured property losses around $30 billion, with uninsured losses potentially doubling that figure
• Could become costliest wildfire in U.S. history, ranking among top 10 natural disasters
• Expected minimal impact on Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions

What Happened?

The ongoing Los Angeles wildfires have reached unprecedented scale, affecting the nation’s second-largest city with widespread destruction. The disaster has caused significant property damage, displaced over 100,000 people, and disrupted major economic activities, including the relocation of an NFL playoff game. Initial estimates suggest insured property losses of approximately $30 billion, with uninsured losses potentially doubling this figure.

Why It Matters?

The economic implications extend far beyond California’s borders, potentially affecting national economic indicators. GDP growth in Q1 2025 could see a reduction of 0.1-0.3 percentage points, with forecasts now at 1.9% versus previous quarter’s 3.1%. Employment impact could result in 20,000-40,000 job losses in California alone, with national payrolls potentially declining by 14,000-27,000 positions. Inflation pressures may increase, particularly in core goods prices, with used and new car prices expected to rise significantly.

What’s Next?

The recovery phase will be crucial to watch, with cleanup and rebuilding efforts expected to take years. Key areas to monitor include:

  • Insurance industry response and capacity
  • Impact on California’s housing market and rental prices
  • Potential acceleration in core inflation by 4-9 basis points
  • Retail sales performance in affected areas
  • Long-term implications for regional economic growth and development

While the Federal Reserve is expected to acknowledge the disaster’s human toll, the event is unlikely to significantly influence monetary policy decisions, as long-term effects on employment and prices are expected to be limited.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018