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China’s Exports Hit Record High Amid Tariff Pressures and Weak Domestic Demand

by Team Lumida
March 7, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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China’s Central Bank Embraces Hedge Fund Tactics to Tame $4 Trillion Bond Market

"China's flag" by futureatlas.com is licensed under CC BY 2.0

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Key Takeaways:

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  • China’s exports reached $540 billion in the first two months of 2025, a record high driven by frontloading ahead of U.S. tariff hikes.
  • Imports fell sharply by 8.4%, reflecting weak domestic demand and a struggling property sector, resulting in a record trade surplus of $171 billion.
  • Exports to ASEAN countries and the European Union surged, while shipments to the U.S. rose to $76 billion, the highest in three years.
  • U.S. tariffs and softening global demand pose risks to China’s export growth, while domestic economic weakness continues to weigh on imports.

What Happened?

China’s exports rose 2.3% to $540 billion in the first two months of 2025, setting a record as companies rushed to ship goods ahead of U.S. tariff hikes. Imports, however, fell unexpectedly by 8.4%, reflecting weak domestic demand and a struggling property sector. This created a record trade surplus of $171 billion.

Exports to ASEAN countries reached $87 billion, the highest on record, while shipments to the U.S. rose to $76 billion, the largest in three years. However, the increase in U.S. exports was driven by frontloading, as companies sought to avoid higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.


Why It Matters?

The record export figures highlight the resilience of China’s trade sector despite rising U.S. tariffs and global economic uncertainty. However, the sharp drop in imports underscores the fragility of China’s domestic economy, which is struggling with weak consumer demand and a prolonged property sector downturn.

For investors, the trade surplus signals short-term strength in China’s export-driven growth but raises concerns about the sustainability of this trend. U.S. tariffs and softening global demand could significantly impact China’s export growth, which contributed to nearly a third of its economic expansion last year.

The surge in exports to ASEAN countries and the European Union reflects China’s efforts to diversify its trade partnerships, reducing reliance on the U.S. market. However, the risk of a global trade war remains a significant threat to China’s economic stability.


What’s Next?

China’s export growth may slow in the coming months as the impact of U.S. tariff hikes and weakening global demand becomes more pronounced. The government’s recent announcement to expand its budget deficit and target 5% GDP growth suggests a focus on stimulating domestic demand to offset external pressures.

Investors should monitor trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, as further tariff increases could disrupt global supply chains and weigh on China’s economic outlook. Additionally, the performance of China’s domestic economy, particularly the property sector, will be critical in determining the country’s overall growth trajectory in 2025.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018