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Home News Macro

Could Trump’s Second Term Boost Your Portfolio?

by Team Lumida
July 9, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways

  1. Trump could renew and increase 2017 tax cuts, boosting the economy.
  2. Trade tensions with China might escalate, affecting global growth.
  3. Deregulation and tech investments could drive corporate earnings higher.

What Happened?

Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House could bring significant economic changes. After the first presidential debate, bond markets reacted with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 0.2 percentage points to 4.48%.

Trump might renew and increase his 2017 tax cuts, set to expire in 2025. Additionally, he proposes a 60% tariff hike on Chinese imports and a 10% increase on other US imports. During Trump’s first term, real GDP rose by 8.5%, inflation stayed around 2%, and the S&P 500 surged 50%.

Why It Matters?

Trump’s economic policies, if re-enacted, could stimulate growth. Renewing tax cuts could boost consumer spending and business investments. However, escalating trade tensions with China might depress global growth and revive inflation.

A stronger economy under Trump could lead to higher corporate earnings and potentially new market highs. Deregulation could also foster a more business-friendly environment, especially in tech and energy sectors.

What’s Next?

Investors should watch for political developments and potential Republican wins in Congress, which could streamline Trump’s policies. Increased capital spending on technology and high levels of business investment in R&D signal robust corporate earnings.

However, risks like a trade war and mounting federal deficits could pose challenges. Keep an eye on Washington’s policy shifts and economic indicators to navigate potential market impacts.

Additional Considerations

Comparing Trump’s potential second term to his first, investors might anticipate similar market-friendly outcomes. Management’s tone from companies could become more bullish if tax cuts and deregulation are expected.

Relative performance compared to international markets may depend heavily on trade policies. Stay informed about political changes, as they can significantly influence market dynamics.

Source: Financial Times
Tags: corporate earningsDonald Trumptax cutstrade policy
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018