- Kalshi will launch perpetual futures on cryptocurrency prices within weeks — its first product beyond event contracts — with Bitcoin and several other cryptos expected at launch, US dollar collateral accepted initially, and stablecoin collateral targeted for Q2.
- Polymarket announced simultaneously on social media that it too is launching perpetual futures, with a teaser video showing perps tied to crypto tokens, stocks, and commodities — an even broader scope than Kalshi’s initial rollout.
- Kalshi secured a US margin trading license last month — a prerequisite for launching perpetual futures under CFTC oversight — while Polymarket’s announcement appears tied to its international exchange, which sits outside CFTC jurisdiction.
- Perpetual futures, which have no expiration date and carry built-in leverage, are the dominant derivative product in crypto markets globally; CFTC Chair Brian Quintenz has said he hopes to bring perps under the agency’s formal oversight framework in the near term.
What Happened?
Kalshi and Polymarket are both moving to launch perpetual futures products, extending their prediction market platforms into the fast-growing world of leveraged crypto derivatives. Kalshi — which last month secured a US margin trading license from the CFTC — plans to launch perps on crypto prices within weeks, starting with Bitcoin and expanding to commodities and other asset classes. The company will initially accept US dollars as collateral, with stablecoin collateral planned for the second quarter. Polymarket announced its own perpetual futures launch on the same day, with a video showing perps tied to crypto, stocks, and commodities — linked to its international exchange rather than its US-regulated platform. Both companies already allow crypto price wagering through their standard event contracts; perpetual futures are a significant escalation in both the complexity and leverage available to users.
Why It Matters?
Prediction markets have spent the past two years proving that event contract trading can be a massive, mainstream business — the 2024 US election cycle alone made Polymarket a household name. Now both companies are making a calculated bet that their user bases and brand recognition can translate into the broader leveraged derivatives market. Perpetual futures are among the most traded instruments in global crypto markets, generating hundreds of billions in daily volume on exchanges like Binance and Hyperliquid. If Kalshi and Polymarket can capture even a fraction of that activity — particularly by appealing to US retail traders who can’t easily access offshore perp exchanges — the revenue opportunity dwarfs anything their event contract businesses have generated. The regulatory dimension is also significant: Kalshi’s CFTC-licensed approach to perps could help legitimize the product class in the US and accelerate the agency’s effort to create a formal oversight framework.
What’s Next?
Kalshi’s launch event was initially expected for next Monday but was postponed; the actual debut is now expected within weeks. Watch for Bitcoin trading volumes and basis spreads on Kalshi’s perps as early indicators of whether the platform can compete with established crypto derivatives venues. Polymarket’s broader launch — covering stocks and commodities alongside crypto — suggests the company is aiming for a more comprehensive derivatives exchange positioning rather than a pure crypto play. The CFTC’s interest in bringing perps under formal oversight could either accelerate or complicate these launches, depending on whether the agency moves toward a permissive framework or imposes constraints on leverage ratios and collateral requirements.
Source: Bloomberg
