- Masayoshi Son is chasing $100 billion from the Gulf. The SoftBank founder has been in recent discussions with senior figures in the UAE and Saudi Arabia about raising capital for a new AI strategy: buying companies and using AI to improve their operations. Son has already committed $65 billion to OpenAI, making him one of the technology’s biggest financial backers. This new fundraising would let him scale that bet further. The appeal to Gulf nations is mutual—UAE and Saudi Arabia have been deploying sovereign wealth into AI to diversify beyond oil. Abu Dhabi’s AI-focused fund MGX and holding company G42 are already among the world’s biggest AI spenders. Son is essentially betting they’ll want to be part of his version too.
- The timing is awkward. OpenAI just delayed its IPO due to AI safety concerns, which complicates SoftBank’s narrative. Last month, reports surfaced that OpenAI’s annualized revenue is around $50 billion, not $70 billion—a $20 billion miss that spooked markets and hit SoftBank’s stock 5% in a day. Son has used his existing portfolio valuations to borrow heavily; SoftBank completed a record $11 billion junk bond offering just last month at yields as high as 9.75%. If OpenAI’s value falls significantly, SoftBank’s ability to keep borrowing gets tighter. The company’s loan-to-value ratio is at 13%, well below its 25% ceiling, but that cushion shrinks if portfolio companies disappoint.
- Son’s track record is polarizing. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in late 2023, a spectacular failure that overshadowed his earlier wins. But Alibaba made him look like a genius. His Vision Fund, launched in 2017 with Gulf investors Mubadala and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, generated $29 billion in cumulative gains by mid-2026. Vision Fund 2, which contains his OpenAI stake, has generated $20.5 billion. He’s good at fundraising and finding big opportunities, but he’s also willing to take enormous risks. SoftBank stock is up 25% year-to-date but has fallen 30% from its June peak when it briefly became Japan’s most valuable company. Investors are watching closely.
- Roze, SoftBank’s robotics and physical AI business, is expected to anchor the new strategy. Son plans to take Roze public at a high valuation and use it as a vehicle for the AI-driven company improvements. If he can raise $100 billion from the Gulf, he could become the single largest financial force in AI deployment beyond model development. But there’s no guarantee the talks succeed. Gulf investors have money but they also have eyes—they’ve watched the same OpenAI revenue misses and valuation concerns as everyone else.
What Happened?
Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank, has been in discussions with senior figures in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia about raising up to $100 billion to expand his artificial intelligence investments. The fundraising would fund a new strategy: acquiring companies and improving their operations using AI and advanced technology. SoftBank declined to comment on the talks, though people familiar with the matter confirmed the discussions. The effort comes as OpenAI, in which SoftBank has invested $65 billion, has delayed its long-anticipated IPO due to AI safety concerns. Recent reports also indicated that OpenAI’s annualized revenue is approximately $50 billion, below the $70 billion figure that had been assumed, prompting a 5% sell-off in SoftBank stock. SoftBank completed a record $11 billion junk bond offering last month at yields as high as 9.75% to finance its investments. The company’s loan-to-value ratio stands at 13%, below its 25% ceiling, though a significant decline in portfolio company valuations could limit future borrowing capacity.
Why It Matters?
If SoftBank successfully raises $100 billion from Gulf investors, it would consolidate Masayoshi Son’s position as the single largest financial force driving AI deployment across the global economy outside of model development and chip manufacturing. Most AI investment to date has focused on building better models (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek) or the infrastructure to run them (TSMC, Nvidia, data center operators). SoftBank would be playing a different game: using AI to improve existing businesses and their operations. That’s a massive addressable market if it works. However, the timing matters. OpenAI’s delayed IPO and revenue miss have damaged confidence in AI investment returns. If Gulf investors become skeptical about whether SoftBank can deliver returns on AI bets, they’re less likely to write a $100 billion check. SoftBank’s stock falling 30% from its June peak also signals that investors are reassessing Son’s track record and risk tolerance. The company’s leverage is still manageable (13% LTV vs 25% ceiling), but if portfolio companies continue disappointing and debt yields rise further, that cushion shrinks.
What’s Next?
Watch for announcements from SoftBank or its Gulf partners over the coming weeks. If the fundraising succeeds, expect a major strategic announcement about which sectors and companies SoftBank plans to target for AI-driven improvements. If it fails or stalls, that signals Gulf investors are not confident in Son’s AI narrative right now. Monitor OpenAI’s next valuation reset. If the company confirms it can hit $70 billion annualized revenue by year-end and shows clear path to profitability, that removes a major cloud over SoftBank’s fundraising. If OpenAI’s revenue misses again or delays further, it becomes harder for Son to raise $100 billion. Track Roze’s IPO timeline. Son plans to take his robotics business public as a flagship for the AI-deployment strategy. If Roze IPO pops, it gives SoftBank momentum. If it disappoints, it raises questions about whether the entire strategy works. Finally, keep an eye on junk bond spreads. SoftBank paying 9.75% last month already signals distress. If spreads widen further, future borrowing becomes more expensive, limiting SoftBank’s ability to finance acquisitions regardless of Gulf fundraising success.
Affected Tickers and Coins: SFTBY | NVDA
Source: Financial Times
