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US Economy Adds Jobs but Unemployment Surges—What Investors Need to Know

by Team Lumida
July 6, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways:

  • U.S. added 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations.
  • Unemployment rose to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021.
  • Fed may consider rate cuts as labor market shows signs of cooling.

What Happened?

The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the 190,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021. Revisions to April and May job data showed employment was 111,000 lower than initially reported, with May’s figures revised down to 218,000 from 272,000 and April’s to 108,000 from 165,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, the slowest growth in three years. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in months, and the S&P 500 advanced 0.5%, marking its third consecutive record high close.

Why It Matters?

You should pay attention to these mixed signals from the labor market. While job additions exceeded expectations, the rise in unemployment and downward revisions to previous months indicate a potential cooling trend. This has significant implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The Fed has been cautious about lowering borrowing costs, but with price pressures easing and employment conditions softening, rate cuts could be on the horizon. Robert Tipp from PGIM Fixed Income noted that these numbers could spur discussions at the Fed about whether current rates are too restrictive and threaten economic expansion.

What’s Next?

Investors should watch for the Federal Reserve’s next moves closely. Traders are already pricing in two rate cuts this year, possibly in September or November. The central bank’s decisions will depend heavily on upcoming labor market data and inflation trends.

As Eric Winograd from AllianceBernstein pointed out, despite weaker-than-expected job reports due to downward revisions, the labor market isn’t “falling off a cliff.” This suggests the Fed might proceed cautiously, balancing the need to support the economy without triggering runaway inflation.

Source: Financial Times
Tags: Federal ReserveJob DataUnemployment
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018