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US Faces $12.5 Billion Tourism Revenue Loss in 2025 Amid International Travel Slump

by Team Lumida
May 13, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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man sitting on gang chair with feet on luggage looking at airplane

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Key Takeaways:

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  • The US is projected to lose $12.5 billion in travel revenue in 2025, with international visitor spending expected to fall below $169 billion, a 7% year-over-year decline.
  • The US is the only country among 184 global economies forecasted to experience a tourism revenue drop this year, attributed to lingering COVID-era policies, a strong dollar, and shifting sentiment.
  • Major tourism hubs like New York City and regions along the Canadian border are disproportionately affected, with NYC alone expecting $4 billion less in tourism spending.
  • Proposed increases in travel costs, such as raising the ESTA fee, could further deter international visitors, delaying recovery until at least 2030.

What Happened?

The US travel and tourism sector, which contributes $2.6 trillion to the economy and employs 20 million people, is facing a significant downturn in 2025. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), international visitor spending is expected to decline by 7% year-over-year, marking a 22% drop from its 2019 peak.

Key factors include the lingering effects of COVID-era travel restrictions, a strong US dollar that has made the country expensive for international visitors, and a shift in sentiment driven by “America First” rhetoric and policies. In March 2025, arrivals from key markets like the UK, Germany, and South Korea were down by 15%-28%, with similar declines from Spain, Ireland, and the Dominican Republic.


Why It Matters?

Tourism is a cornerstone of the US economy, representing 9% of GDP and generating $585 billion in tax revenue annually. The decline in international visitors, who tend to stay longer and spend more than domestic tourists, is hitting major gateways like New York City particularly hard. NYC alone expects 800,000 fewer international visitors in 2025, resulting in a $4 billion revenue shortfall.

The slump also extends to regions like New York’s “north country,” where Canadian bookings have significantly decreased due to tariffs and political rhetoric. Meanwhile, other countries are capitalizing on the US’s challenges by introducing perks like digitized visas, making them more attractive to international travelers.


What’s Next?

The WTTC forecasts that US tourism may not recover to pre-COVID levels until 2030, assuming no further setbacks. Proposed legislation to increase the ESTA fee from $21 to $40 could further deter international visitors, exacerbating the decline.

To reverse the trend, the US must address barriers to entry, such as high travel costs and restrictive policies, while competing with other nations offering streamlined travel experiences. Policymakers and industry leaders should focus on improving infrastructure, reducing travel costs, and promoting the US as a welcoming destination to regain its competitive edge in the global tourism market.

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Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018