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Home News Macro

US Job Growth Slows:Key Insights from June Employment Data

by Team Lumida
July 4, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways

  1. Payrolls rose by 190,000, lowest in recent months.
  2. Wage growth slowed to 3.9%, the least in three years.
  3. Fed likely to cut rates in September and December.

What Happened?

In June, US job growth experienced a significant slowdown. Payrolls increased by only 190,000, according to a Bloomberg survey’s median estimate. This marks a sharp decline compared to May’s unexpected 272,000 rise.

Wage growth also moderated, with average hourly earnings rising just 3.9% year-over-year, the lowest rate in three years. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4%, the highest level in over two years.

Why It Matters?

These figures suggest a cooling labor market, which is crucial for investors. Slower job growth and wage increases indicate that inflation may continue to decelerate. This scenario supports the Federal Reserve’s case for multiple interest rate cuts in 2024.

Bloomberg economists Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, and Estelle Ou noted, “The recent rise in the unemployment rate flags more urgency.” Investors are now betting on rate cuts during the Federal Open Market Committee meetings in September and December.

What’s Next?

Expect the Federal Reserve to closely monitor these trends. A hiring figure below 200,000 aligns the business survey more closely with the household survey, which has shown weaker labor demand. Forecasters predict that the Fed will have sufficient evidence to begin cutting rates by September.

Additionally, labor force participation might rebound, especially among younger and older workers, correcting May’s anomalies. Stephen Stanley from Santander Capital Markets anticipates a “sizable rebound” in employment measures for these age groups.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Federal ReserveJob Growthwage growth
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018