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China’s Manufacturing Activity Rebounds in February Amid Global Uncertainty

by Team Lumida
March 3, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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China’s Financial Overhaul: Xi’s Strategy to Rebalance $9.1 Trillion Debt Crisis
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Key Takeaways:

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  • The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February, marking its highest level in three months and signaling continued expansion.
  • Both production and new orders increased, with export orders rebounding after two months of decline.
  • Optimism among manufacturers improved, but employment cuts persisted as firms focused on cost efficiency.
  • External risks, including new U.S. tariffs and domestic economic challenges, could dampen momentum.

What Happened?

China’s manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months, as the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January. This marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion, with production and new orders reaching their highest levels since November. Export orders also rebounded, ending a two-month decline, as manufacturers launched new products and external demand strengthened. The official manufacturing PMI also returned to expansion territory, rising to 50.2 in February from 49.1 in January. However, employment in the sector continued to decline as manufacturers sought to cut costs.


Why It Matters?

The rebound in manufacturing activity signals a recovery in China’s industrial sector, which is critical for the country’s economic stability and global supply chains. Rising export orders suggest stronger external demand, potentially driven by U.S. importers front-running tariffs. However, the recovery remains fragile, as new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and domestic economic challenges, such as weak household income and employment uncertainties, could constrain growth. For investors, the data highlights both opportunities in China’s manufacturing recovery and risks from geopolitical tensions and policy shifts.


What’s Next?

China’s annual legislative meeting, set to begin this week, will provide clarity on the government’s economic growth targets and stimulus measures for 2025. Economists expect Beijing to maintain a 5% growth target while increasing fiscal spending and loosening monetary policy. However, the impact of new U.S. tariffs and ongoing cost-cutting measures by manufacturers could weigh on the sector’s momentum. Investors should watch for policy announcements from the National People’s Congress and further developments in U.S.-China trade relations, as these will shape the outlook for China’s manufacturing and broader economy.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018