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Home News Real Estate

China’s Property Crisis Deepens as State Takes Control of Real Estate Giants

by Team Lumida
January 31, 2025
in Real Estate
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways:

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• China Vanke projects $6.3 billion loss for 2024, marking crisis spread to stronger developers
• State-owned developers’ market share surged to 70% in 2024 from 32% in 2019
• Current housing inventory would take 24 months to clear nationwide, 28 months in smaller cities
• State entities now control 85% of land purchases, up from 61% in 2021

What Happened?

China Vanke, one of the country’s largest remaining private developers, has fallen into crisis, projecting a 45 billion yuan loss for 2024. The Shenzhen government has intervened through state-owned Shenzhen Metro, which now controls nearly half of Vanke’s senior management. This follows the pattern of other major private developers like Evergrande, Country Garden, and Sunac, which have already collapsed.

Why It Matters?

This transformation represents a fundamental shift in China’s property sector from private to state control. The crisis has created a self-reinforcing cycle where falling sales lead to lower cash flows and higher debts, causing buyer hesitation and further sales decline. The situation is particularly significant as real estate has been a crucial driver of China’s economic growth. The shift to state dominance marks a reversal of decades of market-oriented development.

What’s Next?

The immediate focus is on whether Beijing will expand its support for the sector beyond ensuring completion of presold homes. Market fundamentals remain challenging, with extensive inventory overhang particularly in smaller cities. Watch for further consolidation under state control, potential policy interventions, and the fate of remaining private developers. The trend suggests China’s property sector will likely become increasingly state-dominated, with implications for economic growth and market dynamics. Investors should monitor government policy shifts and the performance of state-owned developers as indicators of sector stability.

Source
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018