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China’s Single-Engine Economy: A Closer Look at the Risks and Rewards

by Team Lumida
August 4, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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China’s Economic Struggles: Factory Activity Falls Again

Source: CNBC

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Key Takeaways

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  1. China’s economy grows, but reliant on government spending.
  2. Consumer spending and private investment lag behind.
  3. Economic sustainability questioned due to imbalanced growth drivers.

What Happened?

China’s economy continues to grow, but recent data shows it’s primarily driven by government spending. In the last quarter, China reported a GDP growth of 4.9%, driven largely by state-led infrastructure projects and public investment.

However, consumer spending and private sector investment remain sluggish. Retail sales increased by just 2.5%, falling short of the 3% forecast, and private investment grew by a mere 1.8%, highlighting the economy’s dependency on government intervention.

Why It Matters?

This dependency on government spending raises concerns about the sustainability of China’s economic growth. Consumer spending and private investment are critical for a balanced and resilient economy.

The current reliance on state-led initiatives could lead to inefficiencies and increased public debt. Investors need to understand that while short-term growth appears stable, the long-term health of the economy remains uncertain. A diversified growth model is essential for reducing risks associated with economic shocks and ensuring steady progress.

What’s Next?

Expect China to continue its state-driven economic policies in the short term, especially with upcoming infrastructure projects. However, for sustainable growth, the government must stimulate consumer spending and private investment.

Watch for policy shifts aimed at boosting domestic consumption and private sector confidence. Investors should monitor key indicators such as retail sales growth, private investment rates, and changes in fiscal policy. These will provide insights into whether China can successfully diversify its growth engines and reduce economic vulnerabilities.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: China
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018