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Home News Macro

Trump Trade Gains Momentum Post-Rally Attack: Is Your Portfolio Ready?raft

by Team Lumida
July 15, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Photo by BarBus on Pixabay

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Key Takeaways

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  1. Markets respond to Trump’s rally attack with heightened volatility.
  2. Treasuries fall; dollar edges up amid speculation of Trump’s economic policies.
  3. Investors eye political risks and potential Republican sweep in upcoming elections.

What Happened?

Following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally, financial markets reopened with significant movements. Treasuries fell, with long-dated bonds underperforming due to expectations of Trump’s fiscal policies driving inflation.

The dollar edged higher against most currencies, and Bitcoin surged past $60,000. S&P 500 futures for September climbed 0.2%. Mark McCormick from Toronto-Dominion Bank remarked, “For us, the news does reinforce that Trump’s the frontrunner.”

Why It Matters?

This event underscores the renewed momentum of the “Trump Trade,” driven by expectations of tax cuts, higher tariffs, and deregulation. Investors now anticipate increased volatility and shifts in asset allocations, with some seeking safety in defensive stocks like mega-cap companies.

A steeper Treasury curve, with the gap between 2-year and 10-year debt widening to minus 24 basis points, indicates market anticipation of inflationary pressures. Priya Misra from JPMorgan noted, “This adds to volatility. I think it further increases the chance of a Republican sweep.”

What’s Next?

Investors should prepare for increased market volatility as political uncertainty persists in the lead-up to the US elections. The potential for a Republican sweep could further steepen the yield curve and impact interest rate expectations.

Michael Purves from Tallbacken Capital Advisors suggested that Trump’s inflationary policies might prompt the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts. Keep an eye on bank, health-care, and oil-industry stocks, which are expected to benefit from a Trump victory. David Mazza of Roundhill Investments advised, “The attack will boost volatility,” emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in your portfolio.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: BitcoinDollarDonald TrumpS&P 500Treasuries
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018