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Powell’s Last Stand: Balancing a Tricky Economy and Intense Political Pressure

by Team Lumida
September 18, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Powell Signals Patience: Fed to Lower Rates ‘Over Time’

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner/File Photo

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Key Takeaways

  • The Fed cut rates by 0.25% to 4-4.25% range despite no imminent recession, marking Powell’s third attempt at preemptive cuts during his tenure
  • Job growth revisions showed dramatic slowdown to 29,000 three-month average in August from initially reported 150,000 in June, raising recession risks
  • Fed officials project three total cuts for 2025, with October and December reductions becoming more likely based on labor market weakness
  • Powell faces unprecedented political pressure with his term ending in spring, as Trump appointee Stephen Miran dissented for a larger 0.5% cut
  • The Fed navigates dual risks of sticky inflation from tariffs and potential employment collapse from higher input costs for manufacturers
  • Officials remain divided on outlook, with seven of 19 participants favoring no more cuts this year versus others projecting rates near 3%
  • Powell acknowledged “no risk-free path” as the Fed balances labor market softness against persistent inflation concerns

What Happened?

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates preemptively to prevent recession rather than respond to one, despite facing complex crosscurrents of slowing job growth and sticky inflation. Powell’s decision comes amid intense political pressure and represents a risky gambit to maintain Fed independence while navigating Trump administration policies that could permanently alter economic capacity.

Why It Matters?

Powell’s preemptive rate cuts represent a critical test of Fed independence and effectiveness in an era of unprecedented political interference. The decision highlights how Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies create conflicting pressures on monetary policy, potentially making traditional economic models less reliable. Success or failure could determine the future credibility and autonomy of the Federal Reserve.

What’s Next?

Monitor October and December Fed meetings for additional cuts and internal dissent levels. Watch for labor market data to confirm whether job growth stabilizes or continues deteriorating. Investors should assess whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing amid political pressure, or if policy mistakes lead to either recession or renewed inflation spiral.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018