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Trump vs. Harris: Economists Predict Higher Inflation and Deficits

by Team Lumida
October 14, 2024
in Macro, Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Trump vs. Harris: Economists Predict Higher Inflation and Deficits
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Key Takeaways:

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Trump’s policies may increase inflation, deficits, and interest rates compared to Harris’s.

Economists predict Trump’s proposed tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices.

GDP growth outlook improves, but potential interest rate hikes loom with Trump’s policies.

What Happened?

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal anticipate higher inflation, interest rates, and deficits under Donald Trump’s proposed policies compared to Kamala Harris’s plans. In the October survey, 68% of 50 economists expected prices to rise faster with Trump, up from 56% in July.

Trump’s proposals include broad-based tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports, which economists believe could lead to increased consumer prices. Meanwhile, Harris proposes new credits for newborn children and home buying.

The survey also revealed 65% of economists foresee Trump’s policies exerting more upward pressure on the federal deficit.

Why It Matters?

Understanding the potential economic impact of each candidate’s policies is crucial for investors. Trump’s proposed tariffs might increase costs for importers and consumers, potentially slowing economic growth.

Philip Marey from Rabobank warns that if tariffs function as economists predict, consumers could face unwelcome surprises in price hikes. Higher deficits and inflation could lead to increased interest rates, affecting borrowing costs and investments.

Brian Hughes, a Trump campaign adviser, argues these policies will fuel growth and protect American jobs. However, economists predict Trump’s plans could widen federal deficits by $7.5 trillion over the next decade, more than twice the expected increase under Harris.

What’s Next?

Investors should monitor the economic implications of the proposed policies, especially if Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts come into play. The Journal’s survey indicates a brighter economic outlook, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.2% in Q4 2024.

Inflation is projected to drop to 2.5% by year-end. Despite these positive forecasts, the potential for higher interest rates remains if Trump’s policies are enacted. The percentage of economists predicting a recession in the next 12 months has decreased slightly to 26%.

Dana Peterson from the Conference Board highlights the U.S. economy’s resilience, supported by a higher-than-expected savings rate, indicating room for further expansion.

Source: The Wall Street Journal
Tags: Donald TrumpKamala Harris
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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
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